California E&S Insurance

The physics of it should work out: * A [1 kWp residential solar system in San Jose](https://globalsolaratlas.info/detail?c=37.336316,-121.890907,11&s=37.336166,-121.890591&m=site&pv=small,180,32,1) generates about 3.3 kWh production on an average January day. [San Francisco](https://globalsolaratlas.info/detail?c=37.779259,-122.419329,11&s=37.779259,-122.419329&m=site&pv=small,180,33,1) is similar. * Estimates of monthly household energy consumption in SF range from [571 kWh](https://www.solar.com/learn/how-much-is-the-average-electric-bill-in-california/) to [780 kWh](https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/san-francisco-county/san-francisco/). Take the higher end of this since winter usage tends to be higher because of heating etc. That's about 26 kWh/day. * Divide that by the 3.3 kWh/kWp and the average house needs about 8 kWP to fully meet their winter needs, assuming that daily battery storage can be provided. * 8 kWP = 20 400W panels. * A typical 400W panel today is about 4' x 6', so 24 sf. * That's 480 sf devoted to solar to meet an average households needs. * Even small lot sizes like in SF are about 2000-3000 sf. This is residential only, and doesn't include industrial sources, and handwaves away large variations in both lot size (plus the existence of multifamily housing) and energy consumption (20 panels probably seems tiny for your dual-EV setup, but is huge for my lights/electronics/appliances-only setup). But an alternative way to do the calculation would be: * [Total annual electricity consumption for the 9-county Bay Area](https://ecdms.energy.ca.gov/elecbycounty.aspx) is about 53 TWh. This includes industrial and other non-residential sources. * Sanity check: [Total annual generation for California](https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation) is about 277 TWh, so the Bay Area is about 20% of the statewide total, which seems about right. It's about 20% of California's population. * Divide by 365 days = 146 GWh daily energy consumption. * Sanity check: there are about 2.5M households in the Bay Area, so that's about 60 kWh/day/household. When you consider that 2/3 of energy use in the Bay Area goes to industrial & non-residential uses, that's about right. * 146 GWh at 3.3 kWh / kWp = 44 GWp of solar panels. * That's 110M 400W panels * Each panel is about 24 sf, so 2.64B sf of solar panels is needed to power the whole Bay Area. * 2.64B sf = 60,000 acres or roughly 95 square miles. * This is roughly twice the size of San Francisco. It's about the size of the new city that California Forever is planning to build in Sonoma County. * Divided across the 2.5M households in the Bay Area, it's about 1000sf on each one. This would cover basically the whole roof, but remember that it's also powering all the industrial etc. uses in the Bay Area, and there are plenty of office buildings and parking lots that can also take solar panels. Land isn't the problem here. Cost somewhat is - 110M panels at $2.5/watt ($1000/panel) would be about $110B, roughly 5x what PG&E is planning to spend undergrounding transmission lines. It's not inconceivable though - it's about what CA HSR is projected to cost.

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