California E&S Insurance

California Climate Change Risk VS. Refuge Zones For a college project my group spent half the year studying regions in California for their future habitability as climate change progresses. We researched both on the ground and using public climate and event records. The regions listed above are 2 high risk land areas and 2 climate refuge land areas. As simplistic as our presentation is our findings are based on lengthy and rigorous studying. Please be respectful in the comments because I am not going to argue with anyone on here. Often people that dispute the facts are either personally invested in high risk areas or they are climate change deniers. I don't have the patience for either. The reason I'm posting this on reddit is to gather public responses before our presentation. The purpose of the presentation is to reach out to developers so they can start preparing housing and business in safer locations as the climate crisis continues. ​ * (High Risk Zone: Red #1) The Central Valley is a low lying flat region. Most of the central valley is going to be high risk, but the highlighted area is of particular concern. In this area high population cities such as Sacramento are located. The elevation in Sacramento is 26ft. When people think of areas impacted by sea level rise, most people think of coastal areas. But the reality is for California most of the land impacted by sea level rise will be the Central Valley region. Most coastal locations in California are situated far enough above sea level to be safe. Los Angeles for example has a elevation of 305ft and will continue to be well above water inundation. Unfortunately for low lying inland cities such as Sacramento, the rise will overwhelm infrastructure. Ground water will likely get pushed up from underground before ocean flooding even arrives. This region is also heavily impacted by wildfire smoke because the central valley acts like a bowl trapping the smoky air in. The region is already known to have some of the worst air quality in the nation, but the increase in wildfires is adding an extra air quality hazard on a regular basis. ​ * (High Risk Zone: Red #2) The Western facing Sierra foothills is the highest risk wildfire zone in California, and likely the highest risk zone in the United States. The elevation of the sierra foothills is 500 ft - 4000 ft. You may think at those elevations that the climate would feel cooler, but as someone who has a lot of personal experience in this area that is not the case. Unlike the Central Valley, the Sierra Foothills does not have access to the delta breeze, which is a cool coastal wind that provides relief on hot summer days to the Central Valley. Additionally those elevations are not high enough to create a cool summer climate and the added UV impact in this hot climate just makes it sting to be in the sun and heats up houses faster. The air heats quicker at this elevation which causes a larger portion of the day to be hot. 90F in the sun at this elevation often feels worse than 100F in the Central Valley. Las Vegas for example is 2000ft elevation and is the second hottest City in the United States. The summer heat in this region is often underestimated. Recently a young family in Mariposa county died because of heat stroke while on a morning hike. Wildfire risks here are high. 60 percent of rain in California falls in the Sierras. But it all dumps down within a few winter months and then it quickly gets hot and dry for more than half the year. The high winter precipitation creates a lot of brush that burns. High winter Rainfall and the hot dry summer which has only been getting hotter and drier is why this area is such a fire risk. Additionally the types of vegetation that grows in this region burns hotter than most woods. Not all forests are equal when it comes to fire risk. Unlike coastal California, the humidity inland is vastly reduced and fires thrive in the dry air. Humidity levels in the foothills are often as low as 5% because extra moisture doesn't arrive from the delta breeze. Even after severe wildfires a new wildfire can happen every year due to the dry grasses and the fact that organic matter on the ground takes years to decompose during the extended dry times. This means that even the top soil can burn. Paradise CA and Greenville CA which both completely burned down within the last few years are located in zone Red#2. The cost alone for fire insurance in high wildfire risk zones is around 5-10× more to insure. Which will suppress development for businesses and farms in these areas. All this combined makes the Sierra Foothills area one of the least habitable regions based on our data. ​ * (Refuge Zone: Blue #1) The Northern California coast has elevated topography that will not be impacted much by sea level rise. Additionally the cool ocean air gets trapped into the coastal region making the air cool and moist. The trees in the coastal belt of far northern California are more likely to moss over than burn. Additionally the coastal winds that move West to East and mountain range shelters the area in from most wildfire smoke even when there are fires blazing inland. This area particularly stands out as a refuge away from extreme heatwaves. For example during the Pacific Heatwave of 2021 Redding CA was nearly 120F while Eureka CA was 65F-70F at the same time. Summers and winters in the area are mild, and as climate change continues this region will likely be one of the most comfortable climates in the United State. We predict this area will soon be a extremely desirable location to live due to the weather. Similar to how Santa Barbara is in present day. ​ * (Refuge Zone: Blue #2) The high desert region in southern California will be considered a climate change refuge because of the lack of flammable vegetation. Although it does get hot here, as wildfires continue to get worse a new appreciation for desert life will likely arise. Additionally because there is very little forest upwind of this area, wildfire smoke will be less of an issue compared to most other interior regions. Closing thoughts: We would like to be a voice of encouragement for developers and investors to utilize these less populated refuge regions in order to prepare the near future population for displacement and climate change related disasters. The only long term cost effective solution is a slow preplanned migration. There are other risk and refuge locations that we identified in our research, but these are the areas we found to be most significant. We wanted our presentation to be easy to understand as a guide for development. ​ https://preview.redd.it/neh47smdemk81.png?width=1560&format=png&auto=webp&s=76d2d8ffdef4343c37dfb75642cc36bb79fd9550

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