California E&S Insurance

Potential Major Cuts to Bay Area Rail [OC] A few days ago I shared an optimistic map of what Bay Area rail could look like in 2050. Many comments derided the map as too fantastical. Today I decided to share a map I made depicting the potential upcoming service cuts if the regional megameasure does not pass. Since ridership has not recovered fully from the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple agencies are facing an upcoming fiscal cliff. If the five-county mega measure does not pass in November, there are likely to be massive cuts to service. BART has announced plans to close 15 stations, end service at 9pm, run trains every 30 min, and even close multiple lines. The blue line would close, as well as all but four commute-direction trains on the red line. The orange line would stop at Bay Fair. The yellow line would stop at Concord. Caltrain has also announced plans to cut service in the event that the regional measure fails. The agencies plans are less specific, simply stating that over 1/3rd of stations will close. I took the 11 lowest ridership stations from their 2025 annual ridership report, and assumed those would be cut. These stations all have ridership below 400 people per day, whereas the rest of the stations all have ridership above 600 people per day.

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